Modeling the Lassa fever outbreak synchronously occurring with cholera and COVID-19 outbreaks in Nigeria 2021: A threat to Global Health Security.

Nigeria struggles with seasonal outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF), with 70 to 100% of its states affected annually. Since 2018, the seasonal dynamics have changed with a stark increase in infections, though the pattern in 2021 differed from the other years. Nigeria had three outbreaks of Lassa Fever in 2021. In that year, Nigeria also experienced substantial burdens from COVID-19 and Cholera. There is potential that these three outbreak events interacted with each other. This may have been from community disruption and so changes in how people access the health system, how the health system responds, or overlapping biological interactions, misclassification, social factors, misinformation, and pre-existing disparities and vulnerabilities. We assessed the syndemic potential of Lassa Fever, COVID-19, and Cholera through modeling their interactions across the 2021 calendar year employing a Poisson regression model. We included the number of states affected and the month of the year. We used these predictors to forecast the progression of the outbreak using a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The Poisson model prediction for the confirmed number of Lassa fever cases was significantly dependent on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, the number of states affected, and the month of the year (p-value < 0.001), and the SARIMA model was a good fit, accounting for 48% of the change in the number of cases of Lassa fever (p-value < 0.001) with parameters ARIMA (6, 1, 3) (5, 0, 3). Lassa Fever, COVID-19, and Cholera 2021 case curves have mirrored dynamics and likely interact. Further research into common, intervenable aspects of those interactions should be performed.

Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta Variant) in a Youth Camp Associated With Community Spread, Nebraska, June-July 2021.

OBJECTIVES: During June-July 2021, an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 occurred among attendees of a summer youth camp in Nebraska. We assessed the factors that contributed to onward transmission of disease. METHODS: The Four Corners Health Department conducted an outbreak investigation and recorded both laboratory-confirmed and self-reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 and mitigation measures employed. We generated sequences on positive specimens, created an epidemic curve to assist with outbreak visualization, and examined epidemiologic, genomic, and laboratory outcomes. RESULTS: Evaluation of 3 index cases led to the identification of 25 people with COVID-19 who interacted directly with the camp. Contact tracing revealed an additional 18 cases consistent with onward community transmission. Most (24 of 35, 68.5%) vaccine-eligible community cases were not vaccinated. We sequenced 8 positive specimens; all were identified as the Delta variant. Precamp planning incorporated local health officials who recommended wearing face masks, practicing social distancing, and using attendee cohorts to limit mixing of people involved in various activities. CONCLUSION: Low vaccination levels and poor face mask-wearing habits among attendees resulted in secondary and tertiary spread of SARS-CoV-2 and severe outcomes among young adults. This outbreak of COVID-19 at a youth camp highlights the importance of vaccination and use of other measures to interrupt opportunities for SARS-CoV-2 spread in the community and shows that vaccinated people remain vulnerable to infection when in an environment of high exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Proactive case identification and interruption of chains of transmission can help decrease the number of cases and avoid further severe outcomes.

Perceived Hospital Stress, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Activity, and Care Process Temporal Variance During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic threatened standard hospital operations. We sought to understand how this stress was perceived and manifested within individual hospitals and in relation to local viral activity. DESIGN: Prospective weekly hospital stress survey, November 2020-June 2022. SETTING: Society of Critical Care Medicine's Discovery Severe Acute Respiratory Infection-Preparedness multicenter cohort study. SUBJECTS: Thirteen hospitals across seven U.S. health systems. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We analyzed 839 hospital-weeks of data over 85 pandemic weeks and five viral surges. Perceived overall hospital, ICU, and emergency department (ED) stress due to severe acute respiratory infection patients during the pandemic were reported by a mean of 43% ( sd , 36%), 32% (30%), and 14% (22%) of hospitals per week, respectively, and perceived care deviations in a mean of 36% (33%). Overall hospital stress was highly correlated with ICU stress (ρ = 0.82; p < 0.0001) but only moderately correlated with ED stress (ρ = 0.52; p < 0.0001). A county increase in 10 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 cases per 100,000 residents was associated with an increase in the odds of overall hospital, ICU, and ED stress by 9% (95% CI, 5-12%), 7% (3-10%), and 4% (2-6%), respectively. During the Delta variant surge, overall hospital stress persisted for a median of 11.5 weeks (interquartile range, 9-14 wk) after local case peak. ICU stress had a similar pattern of resolution (median 11 wk [6-14 wk] after local case peak; p = 0.59) while the resolution of ED stress (median 6 wk [5-6 wk] after local case peak; p = 0.003) was earlier. There was a similar but attenuated pattern during the Omicron BA.1 subvariant surge. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, perceived care deviations were common and potentially avoidable patient harm was rare. Perceived hospital stress persisted for weeks after surges peaked.

Access, socioeconomic environment, and death from COVID-19 in Nebraska.

Our study assesses whether factors related to healthcare access in the first year of the pandemic affect mortality and length of stay (LOS). Our cohort study examined hospitalized patients at Nebraska Medicine between April and October 2020 who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and had a charted sepsis related diagnostic code. Multivariate logistic was used to analyze the odds of mortality and linear regression was used to calculate the parameter estimates of LOS associated with COVID-19 status, age, gender, race/ethnicity, median household income, admission month, and residential distance from definitive care. Among 475 admissions, the odds of mortality is greater among those with older age (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) and residence in an area with low median household income (OR: 2.11, 95% CI: 0.52-8.57), however, the relationship between mortality and wealth was not statistically significant. Those with non-COVID-19 sepsis had longer LOS (Parameter Estimate: -5.11, adjusted 95% CI: -7.92 to -2.30). Distance from definitive care had trends toward worse outcomes (Parameter Estimate: 0.164, adjusted 95% CI: -1.39 to 1.97). Physical and social aspects of access to care are linked to poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Non-COVID-19 healthcare outcomes may be negatively impacted in the pandemic. Strategies to advance patient-centered outcomes in vulnerable populations should account for varied aspects (socioeconomic, residential setting, rural populations, racial, and ethnic factors). Indirect impacts of the pandemic on non-COVID-19 health outcomes require further study.

Uncertainty, scarcity and transparency: Public health ethics and risk communication in a pandemic.

Communicating public health guidance is key to mitigating risk during disasters and outbreaks, and ethical guidance on communication emphasizes being fully transparent. Yet, communication during the pandemic has sometimes been fraught, due in part to practical and conceptual challenges around being transparent. A particular challenge has arisen when there was both evolving scientific knowledge on COVID-19 and reticence to acknowledge that resource scarcity concerns were influencing public health recommendations. This essay uses the example of communicating public health guidance on masking in the United States to illustrate ethical challenges of developing and conveying public health guidance under twin conditions of uncertainty and resource scarcity. Such situations require balancing two key principles in public health ethics: the precautionary principle and harm reduction. Transparency remains a bedrock value to guide risk communication, but optimizing transparency requires consideration of additional ethical values in developing and implementing risk communication strategies.

Fielding vaccines-challenges and opportunities in outbreaks, complex emergencies, and mass gatherings.

With the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of vaccine development, distribution, and uptake has come to the forefront of the public eye. Effectively fielding vaccines during an emergency-whether that emergency is a result of an infectious disease or not-requires an understanding of usual vaccine-related processes; the impact of outbreak, complex emergencies, mass gatherings, and other events on patients, communities, and health systems; and ways in which diverse resources can be applied to successfully achieve needed vaccine uptake. In this review, both the emergency setting and briefly vaccine product design are discussed in these contexts in order to provide a concise source of general knowledge from experts in fielding vaccines that can aid in future vaccine ventures and increase general awareness of the process and barriers in various settings.

Mumps to COVID-19: Vaccinated persons remain vulnerable when community uptake is low.

Vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) first became available in the United States and Europe outside clinical trials in December 2020, when administration began in high-priority populations such as healthcare workers and long-term care residents. [1] Since that time, global rollout progresses with wide variation in vaccination rates by country. [2] Depending upon product and SARS-CoV-2 variant, vaccine efficacies against infection range from approximately 70 to well over 90%, higher against severe disease. Well-resourced settings are starting to focus on booster doses among high risk persons, and locations with higher vaccination rates appear to have less COVID-19 patient and community impact. Yet, in every setting, primary vaccination to as many persons as possible remains incredibly important to effective pandemic risk management. Why this is the case, why even in settings with comparatively high vaccination rates and boosting we still should make the case that more primary vaccination matters can be answered by remembering mumps, and applying those lessons to promoting vaccine access.

The future of zoonotic risk prediction.

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Author Correction: Aerosol and surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 observed in quarantine and isolation care.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Identifying Nontraditional Epidemic Disease Risk Factors Associated with Major Health Events from World Health Organization and World Bank Open Data.

Health events emerge from host, community, environment, and pathogen factors-forecasting epidemics is a complex task. We describe an exploratory analysis to identify economic risk factors that could aid epidemic risk assessment. A line list was constructed using the World Health Organization Disease Outbreak News (2016-2018) and economic indicators from the World Bank. Poisson regression employing forward imputations was used to establish relationships with the frequency with which countries reported public health events. Economic indicators demonstrated strong performance appropriate for further assessment in surveillance programming. In our analysis, three economic indicators were significantly associated to event reporting: how much the country's urban population changed, its average forest area, and a novel economic indicator we developed that assessed how much the gross domestic product changed per capita. Other economic indicators performed less well: changes in total, female, urban, and rural population sizes; population density; net migration; change in per cent forest area; total forest area; and another novel indicator, change in percent of trade as a fraction of the total economy. We then undertook a further analysis of the start of the current COVID-19 pandemic that revealed similar associations, but confounding by global disease burden is likely. Continued development of forecasting approaches capturing information relevant to whole-of-society factors (e.g., economic factors as assessed in our study) could improve the risk management process through earlier hazard identification and inform strategic decision processes in multisectoral strategies to preventing, detecting, and responding to pandemic-threat events.

The size and culturability of patient-generated SARS-CoV-2 aerosol.

BACKGROUND: Aerosol transmission of COVID-19 is the subject of ongoing policy debate. Characterizing aerosol produced by people with COVID-19 is critical to understanding the role of aerosols in transmission. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the presence of virus in size-fractioned aerosols from six COVID-19 patients admitted into mixed acuity wards in April of 2020. METHODS: Size-fractionated aerosol samples and aerosol size distributions were collected from COVID-19 positive patients. Aerosol samples were analyzed for viral RNA, positive samples were cultured in Vero E6 cells. Serial RT-PCR of cells indicated samples where viral replication was likely occurring. Viral presence was also investigated by western blot and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected by rRT-PCR in all samples. Three samples confidently indicated the presence of viral replication, all of which were from collected sub-micron aerosol. Western blot indicated the presence of viral proteins in all but one of these samples, and intact virions were observed by TEM in one sample. SIGNIFICANCE: Observations of viral replication in the culture of submicron aerosol samples provides additional evidence that airborne transmission of COVID-19 is possible. These results support the use of efficient respiratory protection in both healthcare and by the public to limit transmission.

Long-Term Assessment of the Effects of COVID-19 and Isolation Care on Survivor Disability and Anxiety.

We conducted an assessment of disability, anxiety, and other life impacts of COVID-19 and isolation care in a unique cohort of individuals. These included both community admissions to a university hospital as well as some of the earliest international aeromedical evacuees. Among an initial 16 COVID-19 survivors that were interviewed 6-12 months following their admission into isolation care, perception of their isolation care experience was related to their reporting of long-term consequences. However, anxiety and disability assessed with standard scores had no relationship with each other. Both capture of the isolation care experience and caution relying on single scoring systems for assessing long-term consequences in survivors are important considerations for on-going and future COVID-19 and other pandemic survivor research.

Antibacterial use in the age of SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Balancing the use of antibacterial therapy against selection for resistance in this pandemic era has introduced both questions and guidelines. In this project, we explored how prescription of empirical antibacterial therapy differs between those with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine whether COVID-19 status and other factors play a role in the prescription of antibacterial therapy in an inpatient setting at a large referral academic medical centre. Further analysis was conducted to determine whether these factors differ between those testing positive and negative for SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Of 405 patients in the cohort, 175 received antibacterial therapy and 296 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. A positive SARS-CoV-2 test carried an OR of 0.3 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.49) for receiving antibacterial treatment in the first 48 h after admission (P < 0.0001) adjusting for age and procalcitonin results. Patients were 1% and 3% less likely to receive antibacterials for every year increase in age in the overall group and among those testing negative for SARS-CoV-2, respectively. Younger age was found to impact use of antibacterial therapy in both the overall analysis as well as the SARS-CoV-2 negative subgroup (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01). High procalcitonin values were found to be associated with increased antibacterial therapy use in both the overall and stratified analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Antibacterial therapy prescription differs by COVID-19 disease status, and procalcitonin results are most highly associated with antibacterial use across strata.

Utility of repeat testing for COVID-19: Laboratory stewardship when the stakes are high.

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to circulate, testing strategies are of the utmost importance. Given national shortages of testing supplies, personal protective equipment, and other hospital resources, diagnostic stewardship is necessary to aid in resource management. We report the low utility of serial testing in a low-prevalence setting.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance: We Need to Start Now.

In this perspective, we discuss the importance of developing a vaccine to help curb transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The question remains: Once a safe and effective vaccine is developed, will the public be willing to get it? We present information from one of the first tracking polls to assess public attitudes and perceptions toward a possible coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine that suggests public hesitancy over a potential vaccine, concern regarding accelerating clinical trials, and unease over the vaccine approval process. Public health experts, government officials, advocates, and others in the scientific community should respect the signals of hesitancy and communicate sensitivity, applying lessons not only to how we message, but also in how we build this urgently needed vaccine if we are to have successful uptake once available.

Correction：Diagnostic Accuracy of Chest Computed Tomography Scans for Suspected Patients With COVID-19: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/19424.].

Diagnostic Accuracy of Chest Computed Tomography Scans for Suspected Patients With COVID-19: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) scans are increasingly available in clinical care globally. They enable a rapid and detailed assessment of tissue and organ involvement in disease processes that are relevant to diagnosis and management, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to identify differences in the CT scan findings of patients who were COVID-19 positive (confirmed via nucleic acid testing) to patients who were confirmed COVID-19 negative. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was proposed to compare patient clinical characteristics and CT scan findings in suspected COVID-19 cases. A multivariable logistic model with LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) selection for variables was used to identify the good predictors from all available predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) with 95% CI was calculated for each of the selected predictors and the combined selected key predictors based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 94 (56%) patients were confirmed positive for COVID-19 from the suspected 167 patients. We found that elderly people were more likely to be infected with COVID-19. Among the 94 confirmed positive patients, 2 (2%) patients were admitted to an intensive care unit. No patients died during the study period. We found that the presence, distribution, and location of CT lesions were associated with the presence of COVID-19. White blood cell count, cough, and a travel history to Wuhan were also the top predictors for COVID-19. The overall AUC of these selected predictors is 0.97 (95% CI 0.93-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Taken together with nucleic acid testing, we found that CT scans can allow for the rapid diagnosis of COVID-19. This study suggests that chest CT scans should be more broadly adopted along with nucleic acid testing in the initial assessment of suspected COVID-19 cases, especially for patients with nonspecific symptoms.

Aerosol and surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 observed in quarantine and isolation care.

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019, and its resulting coronavirus disease, COVID-19, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. The rapid global spread of COVID-19 represents perhaps the most significant public health emergency in a century. As the pandemic progressed, a continued paucity of evidence on routes of SARS-CoV-2 transmission has resulted in shifting infection prevention and control guidelines between classically-defined airborne and droplet precautions. During the initial isolation of 13 individuals with COVID-19 at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, we collected air and surface samples to examine viral shedding from isolated individuals. We detected viral contamination among all samples, supporting the use of airborne isolation precautions when caring for COVID-19 patients.

Advanced Preparation Makes Research in Emergencies and Isolation Care Possible: The Case of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).

The optimal time to initiate research on emergencies is before they occur. However, timely initiation of high-quality research may launch during an emergency under the right conditions. These include an appropriate context, clarity in scientific aims, preexisting resources, strong operational and research structures that are facile, and good governance. Here, Nebraskan rapid research efforts early during the 2020 coronavirus disease pandemic, while participating in the first use of U.S. federal quarantine in 50 years, are described from these aspects, as the global experience with this severe emerging infection grew apace. The experience has lessons in purpose, structure, function, and performance of research in any emergency, when facing any threat.